The D’Alembert System is another popular and relatively safe betting strategy. It involves increasing your bet by one unit after a loss and decreasing it by one unit after a win. This creates a much flatter and less volatile progression than the Martingale system. The goal is to end up with a profit if you have the same number of wins and losses. It is favored by players who want a simple, structured approach without the extreme risks of other systems.
The Theory Behind D’Alembert: A Flawed Equilibrium
This system was named after the 18th-century French mathematician Jean le Rond d’Alembert. Its logic is based on a theory of equilibrium. The core assumption is that over the long term, the number of wins and losses on an even-money bet will eventually equal out. Therefore, by increasing your bet by one unit after a loss and decreasing it by one unit after a win, you should theoretically end up with a profit when equilibrium is reached.
However, this theory is based on a fundamental misunderstanding of probability known as the Gambler’s Fallacy. Each hand of Baccarat is an independent event, and past results have no influence on future outcomes.
How to Use the D’Alembert System in Baccarat: Step-by-Step
Despite its flawed premise, the system itself is a simple and structured way to manage wagers.
Step 1: Establish Your Base Unit
First, decide on a base betting unit that is a small percentage (1-2%) of your session bankroll. For this example, let’s use a $10 unit.
Step 2: The Progression (After a Loss)
You begin with a one-unit ($10) bet. If you lose, you add one unit to your next bet.
Example Loss Streak:
$10 → $20 → $30 → $40 → $50...
Step 3: The Regression (After a Win)
When you win a hand, you subtract one unit from your next bet. The bet size can never go below your starting one-unit base.
Example: If you were on a $40 bet and you win, your next bet would be $30.
A Practical Example
Bet $10 (1 unit) and lose. (Total: -$10)
Bet $20 (2 units) and lose. (Total: -$30)
Bet $30 (3 units) and WIN. (Profit: +$30. Total: $0)
Bet $20 (2 units) and WIN. (Profit: +$20. Total: +$20)
Bet $10 (1 unit) and lose. (Profit: -$10. Total: +$10)
Bet $20 (2 units) and WIN. (Profit: +$20. Total: +$30) In this sequence of 3 wins and 3 losses, the player ends with a 3-unit profit.
D’Alembert vs. Martingale: A Tale of Two Slopes
The primary advantage of the D’Alembert is its flat, arithmetic progression compared to the Martingale’s steep, exponential slope. Let’s compare the required bet size during a 5-hand losing streak:
Martingale: 1 → 2 → 4 → 8 → 16 units
D’Alembert: 1 → 2 → 3 → 4 → 5 units
This far gentler progression makes the D’Alembert system significantly safer and more resilient against hitting table limits or exhausting a bankroll.
The Disadvantages: Where the Theory Breaks Down
Vulnerable to Streaky Losses: The system’s goal of profiting when wins equal losses can be deceiving. If you have a streak of many losses followed by a streak of wins, you can still end up with a net loss. For example, 5 losses followed by 5 wins will result in a loss of 5 units.
The House Edge is Unbeatable: The D’Alembert is a negative progression system, and like all betting systems, it cannot overcome the game’s inherent house edge. The house edge remains constant regardless of your betting pattern.
Our Unique Viewpoint: D’Alembert as a “Psychological Compromise”
While often evaluated on its mathematical merits, we believe the D’Alembert system’s true value is as a psychological compromise for players. It occupies a unique middle ground between the extreme risk of the Martingale and the perceived passivity of Flat Betting.
Its genius lies in satisfying the gambler’s innate desire to react to the outcome of a hand.
Flat Betting requires the discipline of non-reaction, which some players find boring.
The Martingale is an extreme, often catastrophic, overreaction.
The D’Alembert offers a measured reaction. It allows the player to feel like they are actively managing their bets in response to wins and losses, providing a sense of agency and control. However, this reaction is so gentle that its financial consequences are minimal. It’s a strategy for managing the psychology of variance, allowing players to “do something” without doing something reckless.
Conclusion: A Balanced System for the Cautious Player
The D’Alembert system is a simple, low-risk strategy that is ideal for conservative Baccarat players. While it is ultimately based on a mathematical fallacy and cannot guarantee long-term profits, its gentle and intuitive progression offers a structured and psychologically comfortable way to manage a Baccarat session. It provides a satisfying middle ground, allowing players to feel engaged and strategic without exposing them to the severe dangers of more aggressive betting systems.